{"id":524,"date":"2025-11-21T07:00:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T07:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/confidently-wrong-marginal-revolution\/"},"modified":"2025-11-21T07:00:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T07:00:12","slug":"confidently-wrong-marginal-revolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/confidently-wrong-marginal-revolution\/","title":{"rendered":"Confidently Wrong &#8211; Marginal REVOLUTION"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>The authors then correlate respondents\u2019 scores on the objective (uncontroversial) knowledge with their opposition to the scientific consensus on topics like vaccination, nuclear power, and homeopathy. The result is striking: people who are most opposed to the consensus (7, the far right of the horizontal axis in the figure below) score lower on objective knowledge but express higher subjective confidence. In other words, anti-consensus respondents are the most confidently wrong\u2014the gap between what they know and what they think they know is widest.<\/p>\n<p>In a nice test the authors show that the confidently wrong are not just braggadocios they actually believe they know because they are more willing to bet on the objective knowledge questions and, of course, they lose their shirts. A bet is a tax on bullshit.<\/p>\n<p>The implications matter. The \u201cknowledge deficit\u201d approach (just give people more fact) breaks down when the least-informed are also the most certain they\u2019re experts.<br \/>\n\u2014 Read on <a href=\"https:\/\/marginalrevolution.com\/marginalrevolution\/2025\/11\/confidently-wrong.html\">marginalrevolution.com\/marginalrevolution\/2025\/11\/confidently-wrong.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The authors then correlate respondents\u2019 scores on the objective (uncontroversial) knowledge with their opposition to the scientific consensus on topics like vaccination, nuclear power, and homeopathy. The result is striking: people who are most opposed to the consensus (7, the far right of the horizontal axis in the figure below) score lower on objective knowledge [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[14,7,10,19,35,13,38],"class_list":["post-524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","tag-common-sense","tag-consciousness","tag-democracy","tag-knowledge","tag-learning","tag-propaganda","tag-society"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.adlington.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}