2025 is, after all, being hailed as the year that PhD-level AI agents will flourish. I can personally report that, in the field of history, we’re already there.
But the architecture of these models, the data that feeds them and the human training the guides them, all converges on the median. The supposedly “boundary-pushing” ideas it generated were all pretty much what a class of grad students would come up with — high level and well-informed, but predictable.
Will that change in the next year or two? Clearly, many people in the AI field and adjacent to it think so. But I favor the possibility that there is an inherent upper limit in what these models can do once they approach the “PhD level,” if we want to call it that.
— Read on resobscura.substack.com/p/the-leading-ai-models-are-now-very
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